Signs of change?

There was an election in Iran last week whereby Grand Ayatollah Khamenei solidified his power base and tamped down any factionalization of the Iranian political system. The domination of the election by hardliners will actually unify the message of Iran to the US and make for a likely more stable process in negotiations between Iran and the west. The six major world powers have agreed to hold talks with Iran. This may signal a shift in the conflict, as Iran has also agreed to inspections of a suspected secret nuclear weapons site. A statement made by Supreme Leader Khamenei, when he said, "The purpose of the uproar they [the West] cause is to stop us. They know that we are not after nuclear weapons. They already know this. I do not have any doubts that in the countries that are opposed to us, the organizations in charge of decision-making are fully aware that we are not after nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are not at all beneficial to us. Moreover, from an ideological and [velayat-e] faqihperspective, we consider developing nuclear weapons as unlawful. We consider using such weapons as a big sin. We also believe that keeping such weapons is futile and dangerous, and we will never go after them. They know this, but they stress the issue in order to stop our movement.", lends credence that Iran is, and intends to be, a rational actor. Even with a virtual bomb the Iranians would most likely continue to act as a rational actor in their own self interest. It seems that these types of overtures have given the Obama administration a renewed strength to challenge Israel on a military option and to push for diplomacy that is may be now taking shape. Although Israel has not made a decision whether to attack or not, they have made it clear they will do what is in the perceived Israeli interest. I suggest the US learns this lesson and chooses to do the same, and does not blindly let Israel lead us down a path to war of aggression. If they feel that is what is necessary for their stability then so be it but let it be without US assistance if they don't want to follow our lead on the issue.

The drum beats on...

Iran refused access to requested nuclear sites by IAEA inspectors on their recent visit. After much talk about renewing negotiations while on site the inspectors were denied access to. Inspectors have once again come to Tehran and according to the Iranian govt they are cooperating fully, but the inspectors have again been denied access to any suspected nuclear sites. Access Denied

On another front, the spy wars between Iran and Israel have increased in lethality as of late as Iran has decided to engage in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists. There has been an ongoing campaign of assassination of scientists involved in the Iranian nuclear program over the last few years with the most recent occurring a couple of weeks ago in Tehran. Subsequently, attacks on Israeli diplomats abroad were carried out in New Delhi, Tblisi, and Bangkok with varying degrees of success. This draws attention to the fact that it looks as if Iran has decided that they will no longer allow themselves to be the passive victim in this campaign but will look to a strategy of using proportional responses to aggression.

What is also of interest, is that the US and British are becoming increasingly vocal in opposition to a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran. Iran is now also taking a page out of the Bush Doctrine now claiming that they have a right of pre-emption. With so many divergent interests, and lack of dialogue between Iran and the west, the prospects of avoiding war seem very slim.