Saturday, March 10, 2012

Missed Opportunities... and Second Chances?





Could a "Grand Bargain" such as what was put on the table in 2003 by the Iranian reformers and never responded to possibly come to fruition? Preserving the Islamic Republic seems paramount to forwarding the theocracies interests. My analysis is that the "right intention" of Obama sits well within the Iranian regime. Let's not forget that although the prolonged insurgency and reconstruction in Iraq was a difficult process, one which the Iranians know the Americans loathe to repeat, regime change was not. The knowledge of this fact is sure to be ever present in the power circles of Tehran. With Obama having recently sent a secret letter to Khamenei, I believe it is clear to Iranian leaders where Obama stands and at what point he will take military action. When negotiating with the Iranians, coming to the table as an equal with a mutual respect, such as what Obama seemingly portrays, may just be the intangible that changes the equation with all aforementioned factors at play. Only time will tell if this could be a second chance. Be assured that this week we have seen gestures from both Obama, and Khamenei. It could be nothing, or it could be the humble beginnings of something momentous. 



Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Signs of change?





There was an election in Iran last week whereby Grand Ayatollah Khamenei solidified his power base and tamped down any factionalization of the Iranian political system. The domination of the election by hardliners will actually unify the message of Iran to the US and make for a likely more stable process in negotiations between Iran and the west. The six major world powers have agreed to hold talks with Iran. This may signal a shift in the conflict, as Iran has also agreed to inspections of a suspected secret nuclear weapons site. A statement made by Supreme Leader Khamenei, when he said, "The purpose of the uproar they [the West] cause is to stop us. They know that we are not after nuclear weapons. They already know this. I do not have any doubts that in the countries that are opposed to us, the organizations in charge of decision-making are fully aware that we are not after nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are not at all beneficial to us. Moreover, from an ideological and [velayat-e] faqihperspective, we consider developing nuclear weapons as unlawful. We consider using such weapons as a big sin. We also believe that keeping such weapons is futile and dangerous, and we will never go after them. They know this, but they stress the issue in order to stop our movement.", lends credence that Iran is, and intends to be, a rational actor. Even with a virtual bomb the Iranians would most likely continue to act as a rational actor in their own self interest. It seems that these types of overtures have given the Obama administration a renewed strength to challenge Israel on a military option and to push for diplomacy that is may be now taking shape. Although Israel has not made a decision whether to attack or not, they have made it clear they will do what is in the perceived Israeli interest. I suggest the US learns this lesson and chooses to do the same, and does not blindly let Israel lead us down a path to war of aggression. If they feel that is what is necessary for their stability then so be it but let it be without US assistance if they don't want to follow our lead on the issue.